As we had cautioned in last few days crucial zones onf 20000-20400 are near and be alert on ur trading positions when people were ga ga on Fed cut and run :)
Technical View :Sensex looks to have made a double top on extreme short term basis aroud 20200 which is not a gr8 sign around the resistance zones of 20000-20400 .. The gap left around 19270 regions should be filled in days to come and avoid short term longs till we see a new high or a good dip ... Its better to re - enter in comfortable zones ... Extreme short term support at 19100-19300 ... Review : Walchandnagar almost 10k ....have said aggresively at 1600 buy n keep for 1 yr some people also got a lil jittery when it declined a bit we maintained our view ,....
TEXMACO 1100 ka 1800 , NESCO 1600 ka 2900 cheers to our long term bets ...GULF oil has been stable but gr8 for long term ....KCP does 497 looks a gr8 long term bet , Ind Hume pipe 600 ka 1200.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
WATCHOUT for SENSEX 20400 !!!
We are nearing the crucial levels of 20400 zone which is a good resistance and with the gaps left on the lower side its better to be little cautious and not over optimistic as part of good discipline. So look to be alert for signals and book partial profits in over run stocks to conserve gains or keep strict trailing stops...
This is because for scalpers ,jobbers and traders dont make a great deal of money in such huge rallies and end up giving a lot in corrections...Investors and good traders can gift some of the money back to the markets in corrections though :)
Technical View :
The gap at lower still continues to be a matter of concern and resistance would be seen around 20400 levels .. With the Fed cut the momentum and sentiments are up and we could be knocking those range and the cut has on a major sense already been discounted and with the result season over we need some other cues to pull up or down the market... Look to book partialy at 20400 area and keep trailing stops to conserve gains and be highly stock specific as there would be quite a lot of out performers also if markets dip a bit...
Stocks to watchout for :
Om Metals
The stock is all set for good moves in short term .. Accumulate on declines for a good 20-30 % in next 2 weeks to 2 mths
Investment picks .. Safe for 1 yr slow and steady gains
Revathi Equipments...
The stock is excellent fundamentally and is going cheap on the valuations and future prospects.
This is because for scalpers ,jobbers and traders dont make a great deal of money in such huge rallies and end up giving a lot in corrections...Investors and good traders can gift some of the money back to the markets in corrections though :)
Technical View :
The gap at lower still continues to be a matter of concern and resistance would be seen around 20400 levels .. With the Fed cut the momentum and sentiments are up and we could be knocking those range and the cut has on a major sense already been discounted and with the result season over we need some other cues to pull up or down the market... Look to book partialy at 20400 area and keep trailing stops to conserve gains and be highly stock specific as there would be quite a lot of out performers also if markets dip a bit...
Stocks to watchout for :
Om Metals
The stock is all set for good moves in short term .. Accumulate on declines for a good 20-30 % in next 2 weeks to 2 mths
Investment picks .. Safe for 1 yr slow and steady gains
Revathi Equipments...
The stock is excellent fundamentally and is going cheap on the valuations and future prospects.
Apple Cuts iPhone Price and Revamps iPods :
Apple Cuts iPhone Price and Revamps iPods :
SAN FRANCISCO, Sept. 5 — Apple announced a price cut for its iPhone today, along with a new iPod that looks like the iPhone and a version of its iTunes store that downloads music directly to the player rather than a computer.
Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesSteven P. Jobs, Apple’s chief executive, unveiled a new iPod at an Apple event in San Francisco.
A new iPod model has touch-screen controls and built-in Wi-Fi. Steven P. Jobs, the chief executive, called the moves a “total refresh” of the iPod line, and they signify a move to turning the music player into a hand-held computer.
The company dropped the price of its 8-gigabyte iPhone by $200, to $399. The company did not give a reason for the price cut, which analysts said has been selling very well.
Investors appeared to interpret the announcement negatively. Apple’s stock closed off more than 5 percent, at $136.76, and most of the loss came during and after Mr. Jobs’s presentation.
Mr. Jobs also displayed a new iPod model, the Touch, that looks like an iPhone, though it lacks calling capability. The 8-gigabyte model will sell for $299 and a 16-gigabyte model will sell for $399 later this month.
The new device has touch-screen controls and a built-in Wi-Fi antenna that allows it to connect directly to the Internet. It also has a browser, which makes it more of a hand-held computer than any other music player.
Users will be able to connect to a new iTunes Wi-Fi store from which they can download songs directly to their music players without having to connect to a computer.
Another feature of the iPod software will be the ability to alert a user entering a Starbucks coffee shop to the music being played there. If a person likes the song and wants to buy it on iTunes, tapping an icon on the screen will download the song.
Howard Schultz, Starbucks’ chief executive, said Starbucks stores in the United States are being equipped to manage this process. He said that stores in Seattle and New York City would have the capability by Oct. 2, and that other stores across the country would get the service over the next two years.
In other announcements, Apple announced a new iPod Nano, squatter than before, but with a bigger screen for viewing video. The 4-gigabyte model will sell for $149 and an 8-gigabyte model will sell for $199.
The company said the original iPod will be dubbed the Classic. An 80-gigabyte model will be sold for $249, and a 160-gigabyte model will sell for $349.
But it was the iPhone price cut that got the most attention, raising questions about the device’s continued success.
Apple executives insisted that the move had been planned long ago and that the pricing strategy was conceived in part to keep the iPhone’s pricing in line with its new iPod Touch. But the sharp price cut suggested that even Apple, which has long lived in a pricing bubble insulated from other personal computer makers, is not immune from the brutal pressures of the cellular phone business.
“My suspicion is that they got to 750,000 really quickly, and then it started to slow down,” said Van Baker, an industry analyst at Gartner Group.
Mr. Jobs had previously said that the company would sell its first million iPhones by the end of this month, and 10 million phones by the end of 2008. On stage today he reiterated the company’s goal of selling a million by the end of the month, but now at a much lower price.
“They have decided to become extremely aggressive,” Mr. Baker said.
Another breakthrough Apple product, the original Macintosh, initially sold briskly in 1984 and then stalled abruptly. The Macintosh market did not regain its luster until 1986 with the introduction of the Macintosh II.
SAN FRANCISCO, Sept. 5 — Apple announced a price cut for its iPhone today, along with a new iPod that looks like the iPhone and a version of its iTunes store that downloads music directly to the player rather than a computer.
Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesSteven P. Jobs, Apple’s chief executive, unveiled a new iPod at an Apple event in San Francisco.
A new iPod model has touch-screen controls and built-in Wi-Fi. Steven P. Jobs, the chief executive, called the moves a “total refresh” of the iPod line, and they signify a move to turning the music player into a hand-held computer.
The company dropped the price of its 8-gigabyte iPhone by $200, to $399. The company did not give a reason for the price cut, which analysts said has been selling very well.
Investors appeared to interpret the announcement negatively. Apple’s stock closed off more than 5 percent, at $136.76, and most of the loss came during and after Mr. Jobs’s presentation.
Mr. Jobs also displayed a new iPod model, the Touch, that looks like an iPhone, though it lacks calling capability. The 8-gigabyte model will sell for $299 and a 16-gigabyte model will sell for $399 later this month.
The new device has touch-screen controls and a built-in Wi-Fi antenna that allows it to connect directly to the Internet. It also has a browser, which makes it more of a hand-held computer than any other music player.
Users will be able to connect to a new iTunes Wi-Fi store from which they can download songs directly to their music players without having to connect to a computer.
Another feature of the iPod software will be the ability to alert a user entering a Starbucks coffee shop to the music being played there. If a person likes the song and wants to buy it on iTunes, tapping an icon on the screen will download the song.
Howard Schultz, Starbucks’ chief executive, said Starbucks stores in the United States are being equipped to manage this process. He said that stores in Seattle and New York City would have the capability by Oct. 2, and that other stores across the country would get the service over the next two years.
In other announcements, Apple announced a new iPod Nano, squatter than before, but with a bigger screen for viewing video. The 4-gigabyte model will sell for $149 and an 8-gigabyte model will sell for $199.
The company said the original iPod will be dubbed the Classic. An 80-gigabyte model will be sold for $249, and a 160-gigabyte model will sell for $349.
But it was the iPhone price cut that got the most attention, raising questions about the device’s continued success.
Apple executives insisted that the move had been planned long ago and that the pricing strategy was conceived in part to keep the iPhone’s pricing in line with its new iPod Touch. But the sharp price cut suggested that even Apple, which has long lived in a pricing bubble insulated from other personal computer makers, is not immune from the brutal pressures of the cellular phone business.
“My suspicion is that they got to 750,000 really quickly, and then it started to slow down,” said Van Baker, an industry analyst at Gartner Group.
Mr. Jobs had previously said that the company would sell its first million iPhones by the end of this month, and 10 million phones by the end of 2008. On stage today he reiterated the company’s goal of selling a million by the end of the month, but now at a much lower price.
“They have decided to become extremely aggressive,” Mr. Baker said.
Another breakthrough Apple product, the original Macintosh, initially sold briskly in 1984 and then stalled abruptly. The Macintosh market did not regain its luster until 1986 with the introduction of the Macintosh II.
Cinevistaas Ltd-Insider news update
Cinevistaas Ltd-Insider news update Name:Cinevistaas LtdCMP-84Equity is 10.13 crs.B.V:62.50rsPromoters:68% stake.Story-Company has 4 acres land at Kanjur Marg, Mumbai.Market value of same is around 120 crs. However,company is not selling the land.In 1st Phase, company is developing an I.T. Park on 2 acres which will have around 2.20 lakh s.f. area.Company will not sell the same. Entire property will be put on lease which will earn around Rs. 26-28 crs. as lease rent each year.This works out to 2.60 -2.80 times of its Equity. Company will be spending around 48-50 crs for construction of this I.T.Park to be completed in 18 months.It is being developed by company itself without any partnership with any builder. Expected lease rent is calculated on the basis of prevailing lease rates although when project is ready in 18 months,company may get higher lease rates.For Phase-II, company will undertake development of remaining 2 acres on which also it will build 2.20 lakh s.f. I.T. Park.Conclusion-Media stocks are attracting abnormal valuations these days.These news is not known to the market.Insider claims the price target to be 120+ in the next 4 months.Bravehearts can go with it,"A HIGH RISK-HIGH GAIN STOCK".
Same old story in stock markets This time it"s different."dont you hear this very often from people when you show concern about the continuos rise in stock prices and the sustainibility of the present bull run?Conventional wisdom is in doubt and every valuation parameter is challenged.When this happens,people start joining the herd and do what the majority does.Thus,u have everyone talking about the great indian growth story and everyone starts buying stocks at any available prices.Everyone buys stock at stretched valuations and remains equally confident of succesfully offloading to another fool who will be willing to buy at a stillhigher price.Cut back to 6-7 years ago:I was 13 then but still easily can recollect the heydays of the technology boom.If my recolections are solid i am pretty sure the these similar phenomenon was happening then too,only the rules of the game were very diffrent.People chose not to look at profits,instead,the mantra then was eyeballs".During that time if u went by conventional wisdom and asked someone the sanctity of the euphoria you were also told"This time its diffrent".The new economy is emerging. Coming back to the present.The new buzzword is "real estate".To cash on this craze u have managements selling stories about plans to develop and grow there real estate businesses.The euphoria of real estate is so overpowering that even companies having car parking spaces are given valuations in view of high real estate prices. Why do such things happen during a bull run?Why do people behave in such an irrational manner?The unique part about stock market is that it is devoid of any institutional memory.Stock markets being gambling dens,attracts diffrent typs of peoples in guise of investors.People starts entering the market in a bull ru,swayed by the lure of easy and quick money.When things comes crashing down,these people exit the markets vowing never to return.In the next bull phase,you have a very different set of players entering the stock market who do not have any memory of the past crash.Until they loose they dont relaise that its a dangerous game.Thus at any time in the market we find that those with memories constitutes only baout 25% which includes confident hardcore long term genuine investors.So irrespective of the bull and bear cycles,it is these 25% who survive the storms.The only time they get hit is when they turn greedy.Stock markets as i have discussed several times on my blog as well as orkut,are interesting places for the wise who are willing to be investors and stay invested for the long run.If u want to be succesful,understand that they are no shortcuts of making money.Do not be swayed when u hear stories of how people have made big fortunes in the stock world.It needs lot of patience,discipline,conviction to make such kind of a money.Further another thing which sud be noted is you are not aware of real facts,people dont like to talk about losses too.As warren buffet says"I have always beleived that of all the seven deadly sins,envy is the silliest.When you are envious,u r making urself miserable.At least,with the other deadly sins,you are enjoying urself."Sometimes its better to conserve money than to loose it"."After excitment comes the devil on to your door".
Same old story in stock markets This time it"s different."dont you hear this very often from people when you show concern about the continuos rise in stock prices and the sustainibility of the present bull run?Conventional wisdom is in doubt and every valuation parameter is challenged.When this happens,people start joining the herd and do what the majority does.Thus,u have everyone talking about the great indian growth story and everyone starts buying stocks at any available prices.Everyone buys stock at stretched valuations and remains equally confident of succesfully offloading to another fool who will be willing to buy at a stillhigher price.Cut back to 6-7 years ago:I was 13 then but still easily can recollect the heydays of the technology boom.If my recolections are solid i am pretty sure the these similar phenomenon was happening then too,only the rules of the game were very diffrent.People chose not to look at profits,instead,the mantra then was eyeballs".During that time if u went by conventional wisdom and asked someone the sanctity of the euphoria you were also told"This time its diffrent".The new economy is emerging. Coming back to the present.The new buzzword is "real estate".To cash on this craze u have managements selling stories about plans to develop and grow there real estate businesses.The euphoria of real estate is so overpowering that even companies having car parking spaces are given valuations in view of high real estate prices. Why do such things happen during a bull run?Why do people behave in such an irrational manner?The unique part about stock market is that it is devoid of any institutional memory.Stock markets being gambling dens,attracts diffrent typs of peoples in guise of investors.People starts entering the market in a bull ru,swayed by the lure of easy and quick money.When things comes crashing down,these people exit the markets vowing never to return.In the next bull phase,you have a very different set of players entering the stock market who do not have any memory of the past crash.Until they loose they dont relaise that its a dangerous game.Thus at any time in the market we find that those with memories constitutes only baout 25% which includes confident hardcore long term genuine investors.So irrespective of the bull and bear cycles,it is these 25% who survive the storms.The only time they get hit is when they turn greedy.Stock markets as i have discussed several times on my blog as well as orkut,are interesting places for the wise who are willing to be investors and stay invested for the long run.If u want to be succesful,understand that they are no shortcuts of making money.Do not be swayed when u hear stories of how people have made big fortunes in the stock world.It needs lot of patience,discipline,conviction to make such kind of a money.Further another thing which sud be noted is you are not aware of real facts,people dont like to talk about losses too.As warren buffet says"I have always beleived that of all the seven deadly sins,envy is the silliest.When you are envious,u r making urself miserable.At least,with the other deadly sins,you are enjoying urself."Sometimes its better to conserve money than to loose it"."After excitment comes the devil on to your door".
VBC Industries-Another multibagger in making
VBC Industries-Another multibagger in making I am not supposed to put all clients note here but due to numerous request of you people i am putting the report of VBC industries which was recomended to clients at 13rs some months back.Scripscan-VBC Industries LtdCode-524310 CMP:13Target:30Equity-17.48 crs.Duartion=6-9 monthsStory-Belonging to VBC Ferro Group, VBC Inds. has at present investment activities. Its Equity is 17.48 crs. Book Value is Rs. 18.90. Company has following investments:1) Orissa Power Corporation: OPC is implementing 100 MW Hydel Power Plant in Orissa. VBC is holding 1.40 cr. shares in OPC which is nearly 45% of OPC's total Equity. 20 MW of OPC is scheduled to start in Dec. '07. To implement balance 80 MW, OPC may, after 6 months place Equity with some FII at Rs. 40-45 per share. Thus, value of VBC's investment in OPC will stand multiplied 4 times to nearly Rs. 60 crs. These days, scrips of Power Sector (particularly Alternate Energy) have highest fancy in the market. For Example, Energy Development has P.E. Ratio of 21, quoting at Rs. 85/-.In fact, when OPC comes out with IPO after 1 year, IPO may be at Rs. 80-100. It means, Equity Holding of VBC in OPC can be worth Rs. 140 crs. after 1 year or so.2) Konaseema: VBC Ind. is holding 1.4 cr. shares in Konaseema.Profile of KonaseemaKGPL is gas based power project which has, in Phase-I, already implemented 445 MW Power Plant. Plant for the same has been supplied by Siemens. EPC is by L&T and O&M is by NTPC. Other share holders of KGPL are:Name Equity---------- -----------L&T 5.06ILFS 6.75LIC 4.82GIC 4.82IDBI 8.43International Power Vision 2.01TIFOI 8.89Project cost of Phase-I was 1383 crs. Phase-I is ready to become operational but gas supplies did not start yet. As a result, project cost stands increased to around 1700 crs. Now, KGPL has embarked on Phase-II which involves setting up of 820 MW Plant at a cost of Rs. 2782 crs. which works out to Rs. 3.39 cr. per M.W.. D.E. Ratio will be 4:1.Phase-II is likely to be implemented by April 2010. Phase-II is being erected at the existing site to avail of ready infrastructure.L&T is providing 66 cr. deferred payment credit. It is reliably learnt that for Phase-II, KGPL may make pre-IPO placement of Equity at Rs. 40-45 per share. Once KGPL gets gas supply and power generation starts in June-08, company may come out with IPO at Rs. 100/- per share. Considering that Reliance Power may price its IPO of Rs. 2/- at Rs. 80/- per share (Rs. 400/- for Rs. 10/- F.V.) although, its Power Plant will be commissioned in 2012, KGPL IPO at Rs. 100/- should be a big success.Thus, again value of VBC Ind. investment in KGPL can easily be Rs. 150 crs.COMBINED VALUE OF ABOVE 2 INVESTMENTS OF VBC IND. SHOULD BE NEARLY RS. 300 CRS.New Trigger: Unlisted Group Company of VBC Group is likely to be merged with VBC Ind. This unlisted company holds 3 cr. shares of Konaseema. Market Value of these 3 cr. shares will be nearly Rs. 300 crs.Post Merger, Equity of VBC Ind. will rise to Rs. 30 crs. which means, around 3 cr. shares. And, its investments post merger will be:1) 4.40 cr. shares of Konaseema, market value of which can be Rs. 450 crs.2) 1.4 cr. shares of Orissa Power, market value of which can be Rs. 140-150 crs.Conclusion-Thus,combined value (post merger of VBC Ind. investments can be Rs. 600 crs. or even more. It gives market value of Rs. 200/- per share. Even if we give it a 85% discount to NAV, its share prices should be Rs. 30/-. Once the market gets the full story,Its share price can double in 6-9 months.As and when IPO of KGPL and OPC hit the market, share prices can go much higher.At 13-14rs it looks gem of a buy.Go for it guys.
Company Guidance and order book position
Company Guidance and order book position Some guidance given by the management of Small and midcap companies:- 1)Visa Steel:Manufacturing turnover to be around Rs 1000 crore during FY 2008-09.2)Logix Microsystems:Revenue at Rs 55-60 crore and bottomline Rs 18-20 crore in FY 2008.3)Bartronics India:Revenues of Rs 200 crore for FY08 and Rs 350-400 for FY09. 4)Kamat Hotels:Revenue of Rs 150 crore in FY-2008.5)Godawari Power and Ispat:Targets a topline of Rs 800 crore for the FY 2007-08.6)Dynamatic Technologies:Expects gross sales of Rs 500 crore in FY'08. 7)GEI Industrial Systems:Targets sales of Rs 185 crore for FY '08.8)Zensar Technologies:Targets FY08 topline at Rs 800 crore and bottomline at Rs 70 crore.9)Mudra Lifestyle:Expects topline to touch Rs 280 crore in FY 2008. 10)Vakrangee Software:FY08 revenues at Rs 200 crore with PAT margin of 20-25%.Present Order book position of some companies:-1)Ashoka Buildcon:An order book of Rs 2000 crore at present. 2)Ahluwalia Contracts (India):Has an order book of Rs 3000 crore.3)Simplex Infrastructure:Order book at Rs 7077 crore.4)B L Kashyap:Order book at Rs 1900 crore.5)KEC International:Order book including L1 stands at Rs 4800 crore. 6)McNally Bharat Engineering Company:Order book at Rs 1478 crore.7)BHEL:The outstanding order book position stands at Rs 72600 crore.8)Jyoti Structure:Current order book at Rs 2400 crore.9)GTL:Order visibility of Rs 1650 crore. 10)Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren:Order book position stands at Rs 5530 crore,executable over a period of next 18 months.
Igate global solutions-Ready to rock
Igate global solutions-Ready to rock
Often i have been requested to name some short term ideas but as i have admitted i do lack the caliber of suggesting near term moolahs.These time after some reseacrh here is something i set to present you.A short term scrip which may surprise in the coming days."The short term Moolah"Scripscan:iGate Global Solutions LtdCMP:358Target:450Duration:2 monthsStory:IGate Global Solutions is a subsidiary of iGate Corp, a Nasdaq-listed company. Its services include consulting, enterprise data management and data warehousing, business intelligence and analytics, design, development, system integration, package evaluation and implementation, re-engineering and maintenance. Igate recently along with results announced that the company would be delisted within this december 07 itself through the reverse book building route with the average price prevailing prior to November 13th,2007 as a base price and the same would be a tendering process. Igate is expected to report an EPS of around 32 rs for 09.Even if we give a conservative P.E of 14 the price comes at around 450rs.As it would get delisted by 07,it represnts a great short term oppurtunity.So buying at the present price of 358 rs would atleast mean a windfall gain of 25%(450rs)for the shareholders.The buyback price would be decided based on the price tendered by the highest number of stakeholders.So BUY AT THE CMP OF 358RS AND TENDER YOUR SHARES AT 450RS.Igate has got a promoter holding of 81%, according to the laws to delist the company one needs to have a promoter holding of 90%.Since Igate is just starting to show up the results, we expect all shares to get tendered(barring unforseen circumstances).Even the price can stand higher as punters may get involved to jack up the price.In all ways investors stand to gain the most.SO GO FOR IT.
Often i have been requested to name some short term ideas but as i have admitted i do lack the caliber of suggesting near term moolahs.These time after some reseacrh here is something i set to present you.A short term scrip which may surprise in the coming days."The short term Moolah"Scripscan:iGate Global Solutions LtdCMP:358Target:450Duration:2 monthsStory:IGate Global Solutions is a subsidiary of iGate Corp, a Nasdaq-listed company. Its services include consulting, enterprise data management and data warehousing, business intelligence and analytics, design, development, system integration, package evaluation and implementation, re-engineering and maintenance. Igate recently along with results announced that the company would be delisted within this december 07 itself through the reverse book building route with the average price prevailing prior to November 13th,2007 as a base price and the same would be a tendering process. Igate is expected to report an EPS of around 32 rs for 09.Even if we give a conservative P.E of 14 the price comes at around 450rs.As it would get delisted by 07,it represnts a great short term oppurtunity.So buying at the present price of 358 rs would atleast mean a windfall gain of 25%(450rs)for the shareholders.The buyback price would be decided based on the price tendered by the highest number of stakeholders.So BUY AT THE CMP OF 358RS AND TENDER YOUR SHARES AT 450RS.Igate has got a promoter holding of 81%, according to the laws to delist the company one needs to have a promoter holding of 90%.Since Igate is just starting to show up the results, we expect all shares to get tendered(barring unforseen circumstances).Even the price can stand higher as punters may get involved to jack up the price.In all ways investors stand to gain the most.SO GO FOR IT.
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